A recent survey by TIFA shows that half of Kenyans (50%) believe a second Donald Trump presidency would negatively affect the country, while only 24% think it would have a positive impact. Another 18% feel his return would make no difference, and 8% remain uncertain or had no opinion.
Analysts attribute the prevailing negative sentiment to Trump’s first term in office (2017–2021), which was marked by the “America First” agenda. This policy direction saw the U.S. scale back its engagement with Africa, particularly in trade and development initiatives. Kenya, which has long benefited from U.S. support in security, health, and economic programs, could face new uncertainties under a renewed Trump administration — especially concerning the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).
Adding to concerns, the U.S. recently imposed tariffs on key imports from Kenya and other nations — a move widely perceived by Kenyans as punitive. The job losses resulting from cuts in U.S. foreign aid during Trump’s previous term have also contributed to public skepticism.
Additionally, proposed budget reductions for USAID and global health initiatives such as PEPFAR — which plays a vital role in Kenya’s HIV/AIDS response — have raised alarm among many citizens and policy experts.
Still, not all views are negative. Some Trump supporters in Kenya believe his pro-business stance could bring fresh investment opportunities, particularly in infrastructure and private sector development.
